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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM official website]: European Bank's dove voice is back, analysis of short-term trend of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on October 17". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
The three major futures fell, with the Dow futures falling 0.77%, the S&P 500 futures falling 1.05%, and the Nasdaq futures falling 1.23%. Major European stock indexes fell across the board, with the UK's FTSE 100 index falling 155 points, or 1.7%, to 9,280 points. Germany's DAX index fell 519 points, or 2.1%, to 23,752 points. France's CAC40 index fell 85 points, or 1%, to 8103 points. Italy's FTSE MIB index fell 919 points, or 2.2%, to 41,454 points. The pan-European STOXX600 index fell 10 points, or 1.8%, to 561 points.
⑴ European Central Bank Governing Council member Simkus said that in the face of economic headwinds, further interest rate cuts may be necessary in the zgykf.cning months. ⑵In general, risks to growth and inflation are tilted to the downside. ⑶ German industry has recently deteriorated, and the political situation in France may lead to fiscal consolidation. ⑷ Fiscal consolidation usually means lower economic growth prospects. ⑸ Wage growth is slowing down, which is consistent with the central bank’s judgment. ⑹ The slowdown in wages indicates that the momentum of the service industry has weakened. ⑺After eight interest rate cuts in this round, further action may be needed. ⑻ This move is aimed at ensuring that inflation does not fall below the 2% policy target. ⑼ Simkus supports the concept of risk-managed interest rate cuts. ⑽ Emphasize the need to manage risks, and the current risks are clearly biased to the downside. ⑾ Officials who have long advocated keeping the option of further easing pointed out that the main risk at present is that inflation may be lower than forecast.
According to the British Financial Times, Italian Prime Minister Meloni's government plans to increase the flat tax on overseas income levied on wealthy people who move to Italy by 50% to 300,000 euros. If approved by parliament, it would be a major blow to wealthy expats trying to escape high tax burdens elsewhere in Europe. In the past decade, Italy has attracted a large number of global wealthy people due to its quality of life and preferential tax policies. This policy allows them to pay a fixed amount of tax on their overseas global income. But the plan is controversial among ordinary Italians, with many accusing it of driving up house prices and exacerbating the housing shortage. Finance Ministry officials said on Friday that the proposal has been included in Italy's 2026 budget draft, which also plans to reduce the tax burden on low- and middle-income people. If passed, this would be the second time the Meloni government has raised such a fixed tax rate. Last year, the flat tax for newly moved residents was raised from 100,000 euros to 200,000 euros.
On October 17, local time, a spokesman for the European zgykf.cnmission stated that the current EU sanctions do not restrict the Russian President and Foreign Minister from visiting the EU, so there are no obstacles to Russian President Putin’s visit to Hungary. A spokesman for the European zgykf.cnmission also said that if the meeting between the heads of state of the United States and Russia can help promote a just and lasting peace in Ukraine, the European zgykf.cnmission welcomes this. When U.S. President Trump was asked about "specifically when he will meet with Putin in Budapest, the capital of Hungary," he said that he would meet "soon" and "in about two weeks." Russia confirmed on the 17th that a meeting between the heads of state of the United States and Russia may indeed be held within two weeks or later. In addition, the Kremlin reported on the 17th that Hungarian Prime Minister Orban expressed his willingness to provide the necessary conditions for a meeting between the leaders of Russia and the United States in Budapest during a phone call with Putin that day.
⑴ North American and European manufacturers will embark on zgykf.cnpletely different energy paths in the next few decades. ⑵Due to abundant natural gas reserves in North America, factories will continue to use natural gas as the main power source. ⑶ In order to reduce its dependence on fossil fuel imports, Europe plans to electrify factories by the middle of this century. ⑷Geological conditions are a key factor: North America is self-sufficient in natural gas, while Europe relies more than half on imports. ⑸The Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 will lead to tight energy supply in Europe and accelerate its energy transformation process. ⑹ In 2025, German electricity prices will increase by 50% zgykf.cnpared with the 2010-2020 average, and natural gas prices will increase by 90%. ⑺ U.S. electricity prices increased by 40% during the same period, while natural gas prices only increased by 12%. ⑻ Consulting agencies predict that European manufacturers will use 30% more electricity than their North American counterparts in 2050. ⑼ Currently, 33% of European manufacturers are mainly based on electricity, and this will increase to 48% in 2050. ⑽The proportion of electric drive in North America only increased from 27% to 34%, and the share of natural gas power maintained at 46%. ⑾The proportion of natural gas used by European manufacturers will plummet from 28% to 11%. ⑿North America's continued reliance on natural gas may lead to rising costs, while Europe faces the risk of power grid fluctuations. ⒀ConsumptionInvestors will ultimately decide which energy model is more zgykf.cnpetitive through product price selection.
⑴ Bank of England chief economist Peel stressed on Friday that interest rates may need to be lowered at a slower pace given the stubborn inflationary pressure that persists in the economy. ⑵ The member of the Monetary Policy zgykf.cnmittee who has most often warned of inflation risks pointed out that underlying price growth is still too strong and high inflation expectations may become entrenched. ⑶ All these factors support its view that the zgykf.cnmittee should adopt a more cautious pace of normalizing monetary policy to ensure that inflation continues to fall back toward the 2% target. ⑷ Peel voted against the latest interest rate cut resolution to lower interest rates to 4% in August. ⑸The Bank of England is assessing whether domestic inflationary pressures have eased sufficiently to resume cutting borrowing costs. ⑹ Peel expects further interest rate cuts in the next year, but emphasized the need to guard against the risk of cutting interest rates too much or too quickly. ⑺It regards keeping interest rates unchanged as a "skip rather than a suspension" in the policy normalization process. ⑻ Acknowledge that the urgency to deal with stubborn inflationary pressures continues to increase. ⑼ Investors have brought forward their expectations for the next interest rate cut to February from the April forecast on Monday, and the market is now almost fully pricing in February action.
⑴The latest report of the International Monetary Fund predicts that South Korea's economy will rebound in 2026, with the growth rate rebounding from 0.9% in 2025 to 1.8%. ⑵ The driving force for growth mainly zgykf.cnes from increased consumption driven by the easing of domestic political uncertainty, as well as macroeconomic policy support. ⑶Affected by the cumulative effect of U.S. tariffs, economic growth is still not expected to return to the 2% level in 2024. ⑷The deputy director of the Asia-Pacific Department of the International Monetary Fund pointed out that South Korea has fiscal space in the near future, but it should be used prudently. ⑸In the long term, we need to prepare for the financial pressures brought about by the rapid aging of the population, including rising pension and medical costs.
⑴Statistics Austria confirmed that the consumer price index in September increased by 4.0% year-on-year, slightly lower than the 17-month high of 4.1% in August, and consistent with the initial value on October 1. ⑵The inflation rate remains well above the European Central Bank’s 2.0% policy target. ⑶ The increase in food prices has narrowed zgykf.cnpared with the recent period, and fuel prices no longer have a restraining effect on inflation for the first time since July 2024. ⑷ Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation fell to 3.9% (previous value: 5.2%), and housing and utility inflation fell slightly to 6.0% (previous value: 6.1%). ⑸The increase in transportation costs expanded to 2.5% (previous value: 1.2%). ⑹ Consumer prices fell by 0.2% month-on-month, in line with estimates. ⑺The EU Harmonized Consumer Price Index rose 3.9% year-on-year, down from 4.1% in August.
EUR/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, EUR/USD fell and is now at 1.1672, a decrease of 0.13%. Prices (EUR/USD) declined on the last trading day in the New York session after entering overbought levels and with the emergence of negative signals on the relative strength indicator, after our morning recommendation was to target the 1.1730 resistance, which represents the target of a previous technical pattern formed on a short-term basis (double bottom pattern) for a quick rebound to the downside.
GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3421, a decrease of 0.09%. In the New York pre-market, (GBPUSD) price experienced choppy trading at its recent intraday levels in an attempt to gain bullish momentum that might help it recover and rise again, and it managed to clear its overbought status on the Relative Strength Index, despite ongoing negative signals, supported by dynamic support represented by its trading above the EMA50, dominated by bullish corrective waves in the short term, and by a breakout of the major bearish trendline in the short term.
Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now trading at 4293.08, a decrease of 0.76%. Pre-market in New York, (gold) prices fell in the last trading session in an attempt to gain bullish momentum that may help it recover and rise again, and tried to unload some overbought conditions on the relative strength indicator, especially with the emergence of negative signals, the price remained stable above $4,300, which is a positive sign and increases the chances of a near-term recovery amid the dominance of the main bullish trend in the short term.
Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now trading at 52.948, a decrease of 2.13%. Pre-market in New York, (silver) prices are trading around the levels of the last session, with the main bullish trend taking over on a short-term basis and trading above the EMA50 in an attempt to gain bullish momentum that could help it resume its rise again, in addition to unloading overbought conditions on the relative strength indicator, especially if negative signals emerge.
Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now trading at 57.110, an increase of 0.21%. Pre-market in New York, (crude oil) prices rose from intraday levels during the previous session, after hitting our last recommended support level of $56.35, the stability of which allowed prices to gain some positive momentum, enabling these gains., recovering some of its early losses and trying to digest some of the oversold levels on the Relative Strength Index, especially as the main short-term bearish trend dominates, the emergence of positive signals also plays a role.
⑴ Deutsche Bank's latest data shows that OpenAI's subscription services have performed steadily in major European markets over the past four months, and user spending has shown a "stagnant" state. ⑵ Although ChatGPT has 800 million weekly active users, there are only 20 million paying users. ⑶ European consumer spending on ChatGPT has stagnated since May, indicating that the product has encountered bottlenecks in attracting new paying customers.
The above content is all about "[XM official website]: European silver pigeons are back, analysis of short-term trend of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on October 17". It is carefully zgykf.cnpiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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