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The Fed's "dove" voice is getting louder, and bank credit in the United States is booming

Post time: 2025-10-17 views

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Decision Analysis]: The Fed's "dove" sound is getting louder, and bank credit in the United States is booming." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

On October 17, in early Asian trading on Friday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 98.18. On Thursday, the U.S. dollar index continued its decline and finally closed down 0.31% at 98.361. U.S. bond yields generally fell, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield falling below 4% and finally closing at 3.973%. The 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is sensitive to the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate, closed at 3.431%. As the explosion in the U.S. credit market boosted risk aversion and expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve increased, spot gold hit a record high for the fourth consecutive trading day, soaring $115 in a single day to more than $4,300 per ounce, and finally closed up 2.8% at $4,326.12 per ounce; spot silver stood above the $54 mark, and finally closed up 2.19% at $54.15 per ounce. The intensifying oil supply glut and concerns about the global economic outlook have caused international crude oil to hit a new low in more than five months. WTI crude oil in the US market followed the plunge of risk assets and finally closed down 2.39% at US$56.87/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 2.23% at US$60.84/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 98.18. The U.S. dollar faces selling pressure from a series of headwinds, especially the firming of dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the ongoing trade friction between the United States (US) and China. The dollar remains weak. Concerns that escalating tensions will push the trade relationship between the world's two largest economies to a point of no return are eroding confidence in the dollar. Technically, if the U.S. Dollar Index closes below the 98.50 level, it will move towards the nearestThe support level is located in the 98.00–98.20 range.

The Feds dove voice is getting louder, and bank credit in the United States is booming(图1)

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1771. EUR/USD rose for a third straight day on Thursday as investors' worries about escalating trade tensions between the United States and China continued to pressure the greenback. Technically, a break above the 1.1700 level will push EUR/USD towards the next resistance level of 1.1775–1.1790.

The Feds dove voice is getting louder, and bank credit in the United States is booming(图2)

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3449. The pound rallied to close to $1.3440 (USD) following UK GDP data. GBP/USD's strong performance came on the back of UK data releases and USD weakness. Technically, if GBP/USD manages to close above the resistance at 1.3485–1.3500, it will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 1.3650–1.3665 range.

The Feds dove voice is getting louder, and bank credit in the United States is booming(图3)

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1) Gold market trend analysis

In the Asian market on Friday, gold hovered around 4365.48. In early trading in the Asian market, spot gold continued to rise, rising 1.24% at one point, hitting a new all-time high of US$4,379.38 per ounce, an increase of more than US$50 from Thursday's closing price. It has risen nearly 9% so far this week, and the weekly trend is likely to rise for the ninth consecutive week. Gold's current surge is the result of a zgykf.cnbination of multiple positive factors: expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve provide liquidity support, Sino-US trade tensions and geopolitical risks stimulate hedging demand, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar and economic uncertainty magnify the charm of gold. Institutional outlooks show that the bull market is expected to continue into 2026 or even higher, but investors need to be wary of short-term fluctuations and policy changes. In an era of heightened global uncertainty, gold is undoubtedly still an asset worth paying attention to, and perhaps the $5,000 mark is not out of reach. It is recommended that investors closely track changes in market expectations for the Federal Reserve meeting and news related to the international trade situation, and pay attention to news related to the geopolitical situation.

The Feds dove voice is getting louder, and bank credit in the United States is booming(图4)

Technical: Gold bulls remain firmly in control, with gold continuing its record-breaking rally without any signs of fatigue. Gold prices are zgykf.cnfortably above its short- and long-term moving averages, reflecting strong underlying momentum and continued buying interest. Immediate support is around the $4,200 level, which is the intraday low, followed by the $4,150 to $4,160 area, which coincides with the 21-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart. In the short term, a deeper pullback towards the 50-period simple moving average near $4,065 looks unlikely, as momentum and trend strength continue to favor dip buying activity. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 80, which is in overbought territory. However, the indicator's failure to hit new highs despite prices setting new highs is a sign of waning momentum and suggests any near-term pullback is likely to be mild.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Friday’s Asian session, crude oil was trading around 56.92. Oil prices fell more than 2% on Thursday after Trump said he and Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to hold another summit to discuss how to end the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, traders are also eyeing a possible halt to India's imports of Russian oil, which could reshape oil flows and increase demand for supplies elsewhere.

The Feds dove voice is getting louder, and bank credit in the United States is booming(图5)

Technical aspect: U.S. crude oil is currently supported at the intersection of the 50% quantile of the lower box and the previous important support. The current oil price is likely to fluctuate within the lower box range. Referring to the vicinity of the previous blue circle, if it holds 58.70, it is more likely to fluctuate upward. 58.70 is also the watershed between long and short in the near future.

Foreign exchange market transaction reminder on October 17, 2025

①17:00 Final value of Eurozone CPI annual rate in September

②17:00 Final value of Eurozone September CPI monthly rate

③20:30 The total number of new housing starts in the United States in September is annualized

④20:30 The total number of construction permits in the United States in September

⑤20:30 The monthly rate of the U.S. import price index in September

⑥21:15 Monthly rate of U.S. industrial output in September

⑦Fed Musallem delivers a speech at 00:15 the next day

⑧The total number of oil drilling rigs in the United States for the week to October 17 at 01:00 the next day

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