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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The euro passed the 1.1600 life and death barrier! The double bottom signal flashed, how far can the rebound go under Powell's "support"?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
XM Foreign Exchange APP News - During the Asia-Europe period on Wednesday, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar held the 1.1600 mark and made a breakthrough upward. The exchange rate is now stepping back to the breakthrough level. During the New York session on the last trading day, affected by Powell's dovish speech, the US dollar weakened, and the euro took the opportunity to break through the important mark of 1.1600. The euro remained unaffected by weaker euro zone industrial output data as, on the European front, French Prime Minister Sebastian Le Corni has suspended controversial pension reforms until at least the 2027 presidential election. Prime Minister Sebastien Le Cornu has announced that the controversial pension reform will be suspended until after the 2027 presidential election to avoid a government crisis and gain cross-party support. Although the budget approval issue remains unresolved it provides breathing room for the euro. Affected by this, the French 10-year government bond yield fell to 3.3%, the lowest level since mid-August, as political tensions eased and improved market sentiment. Powell's dovish remarks suppressed Tuesday. Powell focused on the worsening trend of the U.S. labor market rather than the risk of inflation. This statement suggested that the Federal Reserve plans to start cutting interest rates again in October. At the same time, he revealed that the Fed is close to the point where it will stop reducing its bond holdings, which is known as the "Quantitative Tightening" program in the market. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish remarks on Tuesday significantly boosted market risk appetite, directly ending the dollar's early gains. Investors have shifted their focus from the escalation of tensions between China and the United States to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Market risk appetite has returned, driving up demand for stock assets. At the same time,Suppressing the safe-haven nature of the U.S. dollar. Powell made it clear that employment issues currently take priority over inflation, a view that provides support for further interest rate cuts in the zgykf.cning months. He also confirmed that the lack of economic data caused by the government shutdown has not yet affected the economic outlook, at least for now. The CME Group's (CMEGroup) Fed Watch tool shows that during the U.S. trading session, the market's core focus will be on the New York Empire Manufacturing Index, as well as speeches by Federal Reserve Board Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Milan and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid. In addition, the euro against the dollar crossed the key price of 1.1600, the long-short watershed, and quickly established a double bottom pattern in four trading days, suggesting that the rebound may continue. EURUSD bears failed to break through the 1.1542 support level twice, highlighting a potential double bottom pattern - a pattern that usually signals an imminent trend reversal, with gains measured around 1.1700. Bulls are currently testing the neckline of the above-mentioned double bottom pattern, which corresponds to Monday's opening price of 1.1623 or around 1.1620. If it successfully breaks through, the exchange rate will most likely rise further. The current key price level of 1.1600 and the area surrounded by the ascending channel will become the support for the exchange rate in the future, while the downward trend line will become the resistance for the exchange rate to rise in the future. (Daily chart of EURUSD, source: Yihuitong) At 20:34 Beijing time, EURUSD is currently trading at 1.1621/22.
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