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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Group】: Be firmly betting on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this month, British stocks and bonds and foreign exchanges will be defeated three times, and the political storm in Japan and Türkiye will be revived." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On September 3, during the trading session of the Asian market on Wednesday, spot gold trading was around $3,540/ounce, and gold prices hit a record high of $3,539.88/ounce on Tuesday. Investors' confidence in the Fed's interest rate cut continues to increase. In addition, political and economic risks lingering, investors flocked to the gold market; U.S. crude oil trading was around $65.60/barrel, and oil prices rose on Tuesday, after the United States imposed sanctions on Iran's oil revenue sources. Analysts expect the organization will not terminate the remaining voluntary production cut agreement ahead of Sunday's OPEC+ meeting.
The bond market was under pressure again, with the UK's 30-year borrowing costs rising to its highest level since 1998, and the impact spread to the foreign exchange market and gold prices hit record highs.
UBS FX strategist Vassili Serebriakov said, "In terms of the strength of the dollar, negative developments outside the United States may be the driving force of today's market trends." He added that Friday's U.S. non-farm employment data could determine the trend of the dollar in the zgykf.cning weeks.
The pound hit a three-and-a-half-week low against the dollar, with New York falling 1.24% in the afternoon at $1.3375. The dollar rose 0.84% against the yen to 148.40 yen, hitting its highest since August 1.
The euro fell 0.61% against the US dollar to $1.1637. While concerns over fiscal issues abroad are the main driver of market resumption of trading after the Labor Day holiday in the U.S., investors are also paying attention to a U.S. Court of Appeals ruling last Friday, which ruled that most of President Trump's tariffs were illegal.
Judges wantSee each other. The appeals court allowed continued tariffs until October 14, giving the Trump administration a chance to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.
At the same time, the U.S. Congress resumed Tuesday, with lawmakers having less than a month to pass legislation to ensure funding from federal agencies and avoid partial government shutdowns.
The American Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released in the morning was slightly lower than expected, and the foreign exchange market responded little, and this week's main focus was on Friday's non-farm employment data.
The concerns about the UK's fiscal situation have lingered ahead of the budget later this year, dragging down the pound. The dovish speech of a Bank of Japan official and the resignation of an important official in the ruling party caused the yen to fall.
China's service industry gained new momentum in August, with RatingDogPMI rising from 52.6 to 53.0, higher than expected 52.5, the highest level since May 2024. The zgykf.cnprehensive index also improved, climbing from 50.8 to 51.9.
RatingDog founder Yao Yu stressed that new business inflows surged to the highest since May last year, while new export orders expanded at the fastest pace since February. More stable domestic demand and a recovery in foreign demand were the main drivers, and service providers have also reported stronger optimism – the highest level since March.
However, the price trend remains challenging. The cost of input has increased slightly, but the zgykf.cnpany cannot transfer it zgykf.cnpletely, and output prices have fallen back into contraction. This shows that profit margins have been under constant pressure since the end of 2023.
The Australian economy grew by 0.6% month-on-month, 0.5% month-on-month and 1.8% year-on-year. The Australian Bureau of Statistics noted that growth rebounded after weather disrupted activity in the first quarter. The per capita GDP also increased by 0.2% month-on-month, reversing the downward trend in the March quarter.
The growth of household expenditure by 0.9% month-on-month and government consumption by 1.0% month-on-month support domestic ultimate demand as the main driving force. Public investment has curbed growth, but private demand has proven to be resilient.
zgykf.cn trade increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point, thanks to a rebound in iron ore and liquefied natural gas exports, as production returned to normal after severe weather disruptions earlier this year.
Isabel Schnabel, a member of the Executive zgykf.cnmittee of the European Central Bank, opposed further monetary easing, told Reuters that the policy may have been "moderately easing" and she believes there is no reason to cut interest rates again at this time. She noted that the economy performed better than expected, supported by strong domestic demand and the “significant fiscal impulse” brought by Germany’s investment plans in infrastructure and defense.
Schnabel also believes that even without EU retaliation, Trump's administrationThe global tariffs imposed by the government may also be "compliant with zgykf.cn inflation." “If tariffs cause higher global input prices and these prices spread through global production zgykf.cnworks, this will increase inflationary pressure everywhere,” she said.
Schnabel also refuted concerns that the euro's strength could put serious pressure on price dynamics. She said that currencies related to improved growth prospects in the euro zone will be more limited, adding, “I’m not too worried about exchange rate trends. She stressed that after years of price overshoots, she believes that inflation expectations are unlikely to fall off the anchor.
Looking forward, Schnabel warned that a more fragmented, tighter supply chains, higher fiscal spending and aging population is structurally inflated. In such an environment, she believes that “global central banks may start hiking interest rates again than many people think.”
The overall inflation in the euro zone rose slightly in August, and the initial CPI value rose from 2.0% year-on-year to 2.1%, in line with expectations. This growth was largely due to a slowdown in energy prices, although food and service inflation slowed slightly from July levels.
The core CPI, excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, remained unchanged year-on-year at 2.3%, contrary to expectations of a slight decrease to 2.2% year-on-year. The measure has remained stable since May.
By zgykf.cnponent segments, food, alcohol and tobacco continue to drive the highest annual inflation rate at 3.2%, followed by the service industry at 3.1%. Non-energy industrial products remained sluggish at 0.8%, while energy prices fell -1.9% year-on-year. Data show inflation continues to stabilize near the ECB's 2% target.
U.S. manufacturing showed initial signs of stabilization in August, with the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index rising from 48.0 to 48.7, slightly higher than the expected 48.6. Despite improvements, the index has contracted for the sixth consecutive month, highlighting the pressures brought by weak global demand and tariff-related pressures.
New orders provide a highlight, jumping from 47.1 to 51.4, expanding for the first time since January. Export orders also improved slightly from 46.1, but were still in a contraction state at 47.6. Imports further weakened to 46.0 from 47.6, while production fell back to 47.8 from 51.4, the first decline since May.
The labor market conditions remained fragile, with the employment index rising from 43.8 to 43.4, shrinking for the seventh consecutive month. Price pressure eased slightly, with the index falling from 64.8 to 63.7, although tariff-driven rises in steel and aluminum continue to penetrate into the supply chain, leaving the industry-wide costs high.
Overall, ISM pointed out that 69% of manufacturing GDP contracted in August, down from 79% in July. The historical relationship between PMI and GDP shows that the latest reading corresponds to an annualized real GDP growth rate of about 1.8%. Although the overall index remains weak, the rebound in new orders provides a potential bottoming out of activityA ray of optimism.
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