The US dollar index returns to the 98 mark, and gold and silver both rise again

On September 3, in the early trading of Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.41. On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar index closed higher for the first time in six trading days, eventually closing up 0.66% to 98.327 as the long-term yields rose. U.S. Treasury yields generally rose, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.263%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yields sensitive to Fed policy interest rates closed at 3.652%. Thanks to the rise in risk aversion sentiment and interest rate cut expectations, spot gold rose for six consecutive days, once approaching the $3,540 mark during the session, setting a new record high, and finally closed up 1.64% to $3,533.43/ounce; spot silver's upward trend converged, and finally closed up 0.37% to $40.89/ounce. International crude oil continues to rise as the United States releases the latest round of sanctions to crack down on Iran's oil exports and OPEC+ does not expect to cancel the remaining voluntary production cuts this week. WTI crude oil remained above the $65 mark and finally closed up 1.46% to $65.37 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 1.38% to $69 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at US$98.41. The U.S. dollar index ended its five-day negative decline on Tuesday, supported by a sharp rebound in the U.S. yield curve. Usually weekly MBA mortgage applications expire before the release of JOLT job openings, factory orders, Fed Beige Book and API’s U.S. crude oil inventories weekly report. In addition, the Federal Reserve's Mousalem and Kashkali will also make speeches. Technically, the US dollar index is trying to close behindForce level 98.00–98.20 above. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. dollar index will move to the next resistance level of 99.20–99.40.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1631. The euro plunged late on Tuesday shift, falling more than 0.60% as the threat of the independence of the Federal Reserve and risk aversion triggered by controversial U.S. policy. Technically, if the EUR/USD remains 1.1658 below the 50 moving average, it will move towards the nearest support level, i.e., in the range of 1.1575–1.1590.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3374. The pound/dollar fell sharply on Tuesday, down more than 1.15%, breaking below the 1.3800 mark for the first time in nearly a month. Entering the September trading month, the sentiment of the market investor deteriorated and safe-haven funds flowing into the US dollar surged. Technically, if GBP/USD remains below resistance level 1.3400–1.3415, it will move towards the nearest support level 1.3315–1.3330. RSI has recently returned to mild areas, so there is a lot of room for motivation in the short term.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

During the Asian session on Wednesday, gold hovered around 3540.60. Gold surged to an all-time high above $3,500 on Tuesday, up more than 2% despite rising US dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields. Although it is predicted that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in September, risk aversion predominates

Technical: As this non-return metal breaks through the historical high of the $3,500 mark, gold resumes upward trend. Despite turning overbought, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that bulls continue to strengthen and traders must turn their attention to the 80 level to find the most extreme overbought situations. If gold climbs above $3550, that would open the way for a challenge of $3600. On the other hand, if gold falls back, the first area of ​​focus will be the $3,500 figure. A breakout through the latter will hit the August 29 high of $3454 before falling to $3400.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Wednesday, crude oil trading was around 65.32. Ukraine interrupts supply after attacking Russian energy bases in the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian warWTI rose slightly. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said the country intends to go deeper into Russia after a massive drone attack caused 60,000 Ukrainians to cut off power. According to Reuters' calculations, Ukrainian drone attacks have closed facilities that account for at least 17% of Russia's oil processing capacity, or 1.1 million barrels per day. Worries that intensified air strikes in Russia and Ukraine could lead to supply disruptions could boost WTI prices.

Technical: Crude oil prices rose on Tuesday to $66.52, and were subsequently suspended. The rise performed strongly, with prices surpassing the previous swing high of $65.77 and also breaking through the $65.48 anchor VWAP. The 50-day moving average of $66.15 and a key downtrend line were also broken through intraday, both of which are bullish. While crude oil may not settle steadily above the 50-day average, keeping the breakout point above the trend line indicates that momentum is improving and raises the possibility of testing higher levels. A confirmed daily closing price above $65.77 will verify the breakthrough and further strengthen the possibility of short-term bullishness.

Forex market trading reminder on September 3, 2025

①09:30Australia's second-quarter GDP annual rate

②09:45China's August RatingDog Service Industry PMI

③15:30 European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech

④15:50France August Service Industry PMI final value

⑤15:55German August Service Industry PMI final value

⑥16:00Eurozone August Service Industry PMI final value

⑦16:00RBA Chairman Brock delivered a speech

⑧16:30Eurozone August Service Industry PMI final value

⑨17:00Eurozone July PPI month Rate

⑩21:00 Fed Mousalem delivered a speech

21:15 Bank of England officials attended the hearing

22:00 US JOLTs job vacancy in July

22:00 US July factory order monthly rate

01:30 US next day, Fed Kashkali attended the fireside conversation

02:00 US next day, the Federal Reserve announced the Beige Book of Economic Conditions

04:30 US next day to August 29th API crude oil inventories

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